Retiring coal

I recently heard concern around a thing called the “reliability gap” with energy in Australia – which is the time between when coal plants close and new renewable projects take over their load.

The concern was about the demand outrunning the supply:

In the next decade, Australia will experience our first cluster of coal-generation retirements, at least five power stations totalling 8.3 gigawatts, equal to approximately 14% of the NEM’s total capacity.

(The NEM is the power wholesale market in Australia – National Electricity Market).

But it’s actually just optimism at the other end:

There’s “a strong pipeline” of new wind and solar plants to soak up their output… If completed as scheduled, reliability risks for all regions are forecast to be within the relevant reliability standards until 2028-29 when further coal-fired power station retirements are expected.

The investment world is becoming increasingly more interested in renewable projects, and we’re well past the tipping point of renewable energy adoption in Aus to really get renewable energy rolling.

This is far from a prediction – just an alternate view to what you might be seeing in the media.

Fun fact: The cost of coal (that Aus exports) went up 5X in 2021. That normally signals a huge boost in demand and drives growth, but experts predict that will actually speed up it’s demise: “Now that [coal] is five times more expensive than it was a year ago, solar looks even more ridiculously cheap by comparison.”